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Research conducted by CICC has revealed that tariffs have sparked a localized resurgence in US inflation. Nevertheless, due to inadequacies in the seasonal adjustment methodology, inflation over the past two months has been underestimated by approximately 20 basis points, leading to CPI readings that do not accurately reflect the true extent of this rebound. It is anticipated that in the coming 1 to 2 months, the month-on-month CPI will confirm the emergence of an upward inflection point, with potential validation as early as August 12. The year-on-year upward cycle in CPI is projected to persist for about a year, and the magnitude of inflation can be estimated using the input-output table. The onset of an upward inflation cycle in the US could disrupt the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts, introducing new variables into the global asset landscape.
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