CICC's analysis highlights that the US economy, influenced by policy measures in the first half of the year, bottomed out in June and exhibited signs of recovery in July. Additionally, starting from July, the surge in debt issuance began to progressively absorb US dollar liquidity. Moving forward, the inflationary impact of tariffs may gradually manifest, compounded by the tightening of US dollar liquidity, potentially weighing on US stock performance from August to September. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is anticipated to gradually climb to around 4.8% following a swift bottoming out. However, from a full-year and even longer-term horizon, as fiscal intervention in monetary policy gains increasing prominence, US dollar liquidity could once again ease. Coupled with fiscal support for economic fundamentals, risk assets retain their long-term potential, and the downward trend of the US dollar is expected to persist.