TF Securities: August Spotlight on Non-Leading Stocks in 'Broad-Range Pre-Happy Industries'
2025-07-25 / Read about 0 minute
Author:小编   

According to a research report from TF Securities, the performance forecast disclosure in mid-July often outlines a performance range. Notably, sectors with broader performance ranges exhibit higher trading volumes and a phenomenon known as the 'fuzzy premium.' Data analysis reveals that during the July-August performance window, industries with wider upper and lower limits on performance forecasts tend to generate higher excess returns. Within these industries, leading stocks with broad-range forecasts also see more significant excess returns. This mechanism partly explains the calendar effect of excess returns observed in cyclical stocks from July to August. Based on this year's semi-annual reports, it appears that the market has largely priced in the excess value for 'broad-range pre-happy leaders' within industries. However, the pricing for entire 'broad-range pre-happy industries' remains ongoing. Consequently, the focus in August may shift to non-leading stocks within these industries, embodying a diffusion trading strategy.