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Huatai Securities' analysis reveals that Iran's crude oil production and exports are poised to decline in the near term, propelling oil prices into a period of heightened volatility. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint shared by Middle Eastern oil-producing giants like Saudi Arabia, necessitates a thorough reassessment of the risks associated with potential disruptions in maritime transportation. Furthermore, the surge in global demand for oil continues to grapple with the shift towards electrification, while oil-producing nations on the supply side exhibit reduced coordination, and emerging suppliers steadily gain ground. Despite forecasts suggesting a decline in the central oil price between 2025 and 2027, it is anticipated that this price will remain above $60 per barrel, underpinned by marginal costs and suppliers' emphasis on 'profit over quantity'.
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