Huatai Securities released a strategic research report on Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that the market continued its downward trajectory last week, with the Hang Seng Index dipping below the 23,000-point threshold. Beyond fundamental factors, such as consumption data that has already been factored into market valuations, the Hong Kong stock market shifted from a phase of consolidation to a downturn. This transition was driven by a lack of compelling main themes and the siphoning effect of capital competition. Specifically:
(1) On the macroeconomic front, the US dollar index surged past 101, exerting widespread pressure on emerging markets. Amid a strong US dollar, the impact of RMB appreciation diminished, and the AH premium index climbed to 122%.
(2) At the micro level, the competition for capital stock was pronounced, and the need for portfolio adjustments prompted non-AI stocks to transition from stagnation to sustained declines. Additionally, the volatility of South Korean stocks increased last week, influencing asset performance across the Asia-Pacific region. Currently, a strong risk-averse sentiment pervades the market, and even dividend stocks are encountering outflow pressure from southbound funds.
Looking ahead, the market's potential for a reversal remains unrealized, and the密集 (intensive, here it means a large number in a short period) delisting of newly listed tech stocks in early July may introduce further negative impacts. In terms of asset allocation, in the short term, it is prudent to focus on sectors with high short-selling activity and marginal improvements in earnings expectations, such as media and innovative pharmaceuticals. For OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) accounts, attention can be directed towards high-dividend stocks that have declined to offer attractive 'cost-effectiveness'.
