CICC: Core Inflation Rebound May Intensify Internal Fed Disagreements
2025-08-13 / Read about 0 minute
Author:小编   

In a recent research report by CICC, it was revealed that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States surged 0.3% month-on-month and rebounded to 3.1% year-on-year in July, surpassing market expectations of 2.9%. Meanwhile, the overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below forecasts. Notably, July's inflation was marked by moderate increases in commodity prices and a rebound in service prices. While tariff costs continue to be passed on to retail consumers, some commodity prices have experienced declines. Additionally, service prices that had previously declined have now turned upwards, reinforcing the persistence of inflation. Consequently, we anticipate that U.S. inflation will enter a structural upward trajectory. For the Federal Reserve, the core CPI's failure to converge towards the 2% target and its rebound above 3% are exacerbating internal disagreements regarding policy decisions. This dynamic is poised to increase uncertainty in the monetary policy path and potentially elevate market volatility.

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