CITIC Securities observes that the market is currently bearish on US Treasuries, forecasting a potential further increase in long-term yields in the short term. However, once the market has fully absorbed recent negative factors, the emergence of "bond vigilantes" could present an opportunity for President Trump to argue that his economic stimulus measures can reverse the downward trend in debt. Should US economic data remain subdued and the fiscal situation fail to improve, long-term US Treasuries may face intensified selling pressure. Additionally, the rebound in US inflation and the increase in Treasury supply following the resolution of the debt ceiling issue are other factors that could drive up Treasury yields.
