As memory manufacturers shift wafer capacity to HBM, DDR5, and high-layer NAND, Morgan Stanley predicts that the supply constraints for mature DRAM memory and NAND flash chips are likely to intensify. It is expected that by the third quarter of 2026, DDR4 prices will rise by 50%, with an additional increase of over 10% in the fourth quarter. During the same period, SLC NAND prices are projected to surge by over 50% in both quarters. This round of supply contraction is primarily driven by changes on the supply side, with HBM wafer consumption approximately three times that of traditional DRAM. UBS estimates that by 2027, NVIDIA's HBM consumption will reach approximately 25.1 billion Gb, with industry-wide demand at around 61.5 billion Gb. Additionally, DDR5 prices are also on the rise, with Bank of America data showing an 8% month-over-month increase in spot prices for 24GB DDR5-5600/6400 memory in August, and a year-over-year increase of approximately 483%.
