According to a Bank of America survey, among 180 investors managing a total of $525 billion in assets, 56% of respondents are currently overweight on global equities, the highest proportion since November 2021. Most investors anticipate sustained economic growth, with a record 56% believing the economy will achieve a 'no-landing' scenario. 72% of respondents think the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates before the U.S. midterm elections. The most crowded trades currently include going long on global semiconductors, shorting the Japanese yen, and going long on the seven major U.S. tech giants. Major tail risks include an artificial intelligence bubble and disorderly rises in bond yields. About 38% of respondents believe that capital expenditures by AI hyperscalers are most likely to trigger systemic credit events. However, 71% of respondents expect AI capital expenditures will not decline by 2026, and 58% believe they will not impact the labor market until at least 2028.
