On August 5, reports emerged indicating that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have witnessed a substantial drop in their stock prices over the past month, with declines of 23% and 35%, respectively. Market concerns have arisen, suggesting that the upward momentum in HBM prices may be losing steam, the NAND market is facing oversupply, and competitors are rapidly expanding their production capacities. However, Goldman Sachs’ analysis indicates that these negative factors have been unduly exaggerated. At present, memory inventories are still at a low level, and supply remains constrained. Moreover, long-term agreement (LTA) terms and shareholder return policies are advantageous to suppliers. Consequently, Goldman Sachs reaffirms its “buy” rating for both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Despite the decline in their stock prices, which has brought down the projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2027 to roughly 3.5 to 3.6 times and price-to-book (P/B) ratios to just 1.4 to 1.6 times, the underlying fundamentals do not seem to have deteriorated to a point that would warrant such pessimistic valuations. This assessment takes into account HBM supply and demand dynamics, LTAs, industry inventory levels, NAND demand trends, and competitive forces.

Goldman Sachs projects that by 2027, the comprehensive average selling prices (ASPs) of HBM for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will increase by approximately 87% and 100% year-on-year, respectively, both nearing $2.9 per GB. Notably, SK Hynix’s forecast surpasses market consensus by about 24%. The primary driver behind this forecast is the supply-demand imbalance in the HBM market, particularly as process upgrades, an increase in stacking layers, and growing challenges in improving yields constrain the pace of HBM production expansion. It is anticipated that the supply-demand gap will be even more pronounced next year compared to this year.