DDR5 memory has been available on the market for four to five years and was anticipated to gradually take over from DDR4 as the dominant choice. Nevertheless, the past year has witnessed an anomalous scenario where DDR4 prices have climbed more steeply than those of DDR5. This unusual development is rooted in the robust demand for memory in the AI sector, prompting major producers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to redirect their production capabilities towards high-margin HBM memory. Consequently, this has led to a diminished supply of both DDR4 and DDR5.

Since September 2024, the spot price of DDR4 has been on a continuous upward trajectory. The contract price in the fourth quarter of 2025 has escalated by 42.9% compared to the third quarter, while the spot price has surged by an impressive 197%. DDR5 has not been immune to these price hikes either, with prices climbing by over 300% since September 2025.

The three leading manufacturers not only lack plans to substantially ramp up DDR4 production but are also gradually phasing it out. Instead, they are focusing their resources on HBM and DDR5, which is further intensifying the supply shortage of DDR4. It is projected that the contract price of DDR4 will continue its meteoric rise, soaring by an additional 50% in the first quarter of 2026, with a gross profit margin nearing 50%. This will narrow the profitability gap between DDR4 and both HBM and DDR5.

This emerging trend has spurred some manufacturers to reconsider their strategies regarding DDR4 production discontinuation. For instance, Samsung is contemplating postponing the cessation of DDR4 production until the end of 2026.