Based on the latest report from TrendForce, the increases in DRAM quotes have surpassed initial projections, primarily driven by the fervent order - placing activities of global cloud service providers (CSPs). Notably, DDR5 prices are on a continuous upward trajectory, swiftly closing the price gap with high - end HBM3e. It is anticipated that, commencing from the first quarter of 2026, DDR5 will, for the first time, achieve greater profitability than HBM3e.

The report highlights that the contract price of Server DRAM in the fourth quarter of 2025 has seen a significant boost. This is attributed to CSPs' expansion of their data center capacities, which has, in turn, propelled the overall DRAM prices upwards. TrendForce has revised its projected price increase for general - purpose DRAM in the fourth quarter, raising it from the previous range of 8%–13% to 18%–23%. Moreover, further adjustments to this estimate may be on the horizon.

Looking ahead to 2026, server shipments are projected to experience an approximate 4% year - on - year growth. Furthermore, as CSPs proactively embrace high - performance computing architectures, the DRAM capacity per server is set to increase. This will drive the overall demand for DRAM bits higher than previously anticipated and extend the duration of supply shortages. Consequently, DDR5 contract prices are expected to climb throughout 2026, with substantial increases anticipated in the first half of the year. In contrast, HBM3e prices are projected to decline on a year - on - year basis, owing to intensified market competition and stable buyer inventory levels.