A research report released by CITIC Securities revealed that export growth in August did not meet prior expectations or match the figure from the previous period. This was mainly attributed to a deceleration in the export momentum directed toward the United States, along with the influence of base effects.
When examining the product composition, it becomes evident that exports were significantly propelled by semiconductors, the automotive industry supply chain, as well as machinery and transportation equipment. Conversely, labor-intensive products increasingly acted as a drag on overall export performance.
On the import front, the growth rate in August also fell short of forecasts. This shortfall might be associated with the downturn in sentiment within the manufacturing sector during the third quarter.
Looking forward to the latter half of the year, the remarkable export performance directed toward non-U.S. regions is anticipated to counterbalance the downward pressure stemming from the declining demand in the United States. As a result, export growth is projected to remain resilient. Nevertheless, there is a possibility of a sequential decline in the fourth quarter, primarily due to the impact of high base effects.