According to CITIC Securities' analysis, a modest economic slowdown is anticipated to result in a deceleration in the growth rate of US stock earnings in the second half of the year, with the extent of this decline deemed manageable. The primary determinant of US stock performance hinges on valuation. While the third quarter will encounter risk events such as tariff adjustments, these may amplify the fundamental divergences between the US and non-US economies, potentially augmenting capital inflows into the US stock market. Consequently, the third quarter could emerge as a pivotal juncture for shifts in capital flows. Considering current macroeconomic conditions and real interest rate levels, US stock valuations reside at the upper boundary of a reasonable range, suggesting further upside potential. Between August and September, risk events and the slowing macro economy may introduce some volatility into US stocks. However, fueled by capital flows and potential technological breakthroughs, the outlook for US stocks in the fourth quarter remains optimistic, particularly for leading technology sectors.