On September 21, research from Galaxy Securities highlighted that, from a long-term vantage point, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are unlikely to undermine the fundamental nature of the AI technological revolution in driving productivity gains. Although the initial construction of AI infrastructure may temporarily spike demand for resources like chips and electricity, in the grand scheme of things, it will foster a structural deflationary impact. This will be achieved by enhancing total factor productivity and broadening supply capabilities, thereby effectively counterbalancing inflationary forces. The enduring upward trend in global AI capital expenditures persists, with computing power demand continuing to surge.
Several Federal Reserve officials have posited that AI will elevate neutral interest rate levels. Consequently, even if nominal interest rates stay elevated, the actual policy rates might still hover at relatively low levels. The robustness of AI industry growth is ample to sustain its development momentum amidst a high-interest-rate climate. Hence, in the medium to long term, the core rationale underpinning the AI industry remains steadfast. The valuation corrections spurred by rate hikes, in fact, present a more rational valuation baseline for companies that boast genuine performance credentials.
