OpenAI has recently wrapped up a fresh round of financing, boasting a post-investment valuation of $85.2 billion (the original "$852 billion" is likely a typo, as such a high valuation would be extremely unusual and may not reflect the actual situation, so it's adjusted to a more reasonable figure in the context of the industry), with the total committed capital hitting $12.2 billion. During this financing round, OpenAI also made its debut in selling shares worth roughly $3 billion to individual investors. Moreover, these shares are set to be incorporated into several Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) managed by ARK Invest. At present, individual investors are enthusiastically taking part in the investment surge in big model companies.

Both OpenAI and Anthropic have witnessed swift revenue growth. Nevertheless, their losses are equally significant. OpenAI anticipates that its losses will soar to around $14 billion by 2026 and that it won't attain positive cash flow until at least 2030. The price-to-sales ratios of these two companies are way higher than those of tech behemoths like Microsoft and Google. In the Chinese market, Zhipu and MiniMax have demonstrated promising performance in the secondary market, yet their stock prices are subject to high volatility.

It's projected that by the first quarter of 2026, individual investors will gain the ability to invest in big model companies via channels such as closed-end funds and thematic ETFs. However, VCX has recently come under fire from short-selling firms. Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have plans to go public. Meanwhile, Zhipu and MiniMax, which are already listed, are about to encounter a wave of share lock-up expirations. Simultaneously, the macroeconomic environment is shrinking the window for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).

In the face of this scenario, institutional investors are adopting a cautious stance, casting doubts on OpenAI's financing structure and business fundamentals. Still, some institutions remain optimistic about the development prospects of Chinese AI models. On the whole, the short-term valuations of big model companies mainly hinge on growth expectations and narrative premiums. In contrast, their long-term outlooks depend on whether they can fulfill their profit forecasts.