Goldman Sachs Group anticipates that, propelled by the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and corresponding policy measures, China's benchmark stock market index will maintain its upward trajectory in 2026, albeit at a more moderate pace than in 2025. Specifically, the MSCI China Index is projected to climb by 20% from its closing level in 2025, reaching 100 points by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the CSI 300 Index is expected to rise by 12%, reaching 5,200 points. The primary catalyst for the stock market's ascent in 2026 will be the growth in corporate earnings, which will be bolstered by sectors such as artificial intelligence. In the early stages of 2026, both the CSI 300 Index and the MSCI China Index have exhibited upward trends, accompanied by vibrant market activity.

Goldman Sachs predicts that, in 2026, net purchases of Hong Kong stocks by mainland investors through the Stock Connect program will amount to $200 billion. Additionally, a potential reduction in underweight positions by overseas investors could attract an extra $10 billion in inflows. Goldman Sachs has revised its corporate earnings growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upwards to 14% and remains optimistic about China's stock market in the long term, given its relatively accurate predictions for the market's rise in 2025.