Industrial Securities' research report highlights that the current valuation of U.S. stocks has reached a historical peak, while risk premiums continue to hover at persistently low levels. Amid growing concerns over a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, the report anticipates that the volatility of U.S. tech stocks will escalate in 2026. On one hand, despite the elevated valuation of the S&P 500, the probability of a significant valuation correction remains relatively low. This outlook is underpinned by expectations of fiscal and monetary "dual easing" policies, coupled with anticipated improvements in total factor productivity driven by AI advancements. On the other hand, the current system of low risk premiums and high valuations hinges on three critical pillars: "easing policy expectations—heightened growth prospects—technology innovation premium." Any disruption to any of these components could prompt the market to reassess risk premiums. In particular, should the Federal Reserve implement interest rate cuts that exceed market expectations, vigilance is advised in the latter half of 2026 regarding the potential emergence of a consensus on worsening inflation in the United States. Such a scenario could subsequently trigger a resurgence in risk premiums.
