Morgan Stanley analysts have conducted a sensitivity analysis, projecting that for every roughly 500,000 TPU units Google sells externally, the revenue of Google Cloud is anticipated to surge by approximately $13 billion by 2027. This growth would translate to an around 11% increase, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise by approximately $0.37, marking a roughly 3% uptick. Should Google Cloud's business operations accelerate and its footprint in the semiconductor market continue to expand, it will serve as a strong pillar to bolster its stock price.

Given the backdrop that NVIDIA's projected GPU shipments are estimated to reach approximately 8 million units by 2027, it is reasonable to expect Google's external TPU sales to fall within the range of 500,000 to 1 million units. Nevertheless, uncertainties persist regarding Google's strategy for promoting external TPU sales. Investors are particularly interested in its business model, pricing approach, and the types of workloads its TPUs can effectively support.

This year, Google has procured computing power for large models from NVIDIA at a cost of approximately $20 billion, while only investing around a billion dollars in TPUs. Looking ahead to next year, there may be adjustments in the capital allocation structure. It is also improbable that the overall growth in AI chip demand will lead to a 'winner-takes-all' scenario.