Pimco states that a comprehensive analysis of nominal yields, term premiums, and swap spreads reveals insufficient evidence that AI companies' higher-than-expected bond issuance has driven up U.S. Treasury yields. Multi-asset credit strategist Lotfi Karoui noted in a report that while the AI capital expenditure boom may raise the equilibrium real interest rate through savings and investment channels, the notion of a direct crowding-out effect of AI bond issuance on U.S. Treasuries lacks data support.
